Hi, I’m Anton Wagner, engineer and MBA, data sciences and engineering professional and founder of ‘The Third Perspective’.
My fixation with stock markets really spiked around 2009 with a master’s
research that looked at the effects of seasonal affective disorder (SAD) in
capital markets. Some techniques that were applied were multivariate linear regression and E-GARCH for a conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) … boring!
The general principle is that the marginal investor’s
risk appetite is affected by SAD (basically winter depression!) and this
affects the price of ‘market risk’. This could potentially be capitalised on in
trading strategies between Northern and Southern hemisphere, adding additional growth to investments… not so boring!
Over many years and to the day, this evaluation of a feature extended to
many others and models were adapted to predict future stock price movements.
Currently deploying state of the art machine learning and an wide range
of model features with a reasonable accuracy, these models proofed to be a
valuable input to the existing poles of Fundamental- vs Technical Analysis.
Hope you find the daily trading ideas useful and let us unite in the quest
to outperform the markets!